Perbincangan Khusus Berkenaan Dagangan Forex
Monday, December 26, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Wealth Protection II - Three Years Later – Is Your Money Safe?
By Pharaoh
A happy customer of Mattress Bank
extracted from : ForexPeaceArmy
Three years ago in September of 2008, I wrote an article on Wealth Protection. It was a general overview of how to keep your money as safe as possible in the uncertain economic times during the banking crisis of 2008. I'm saddened to report that the world economy and the world of forex doesn't seem to have settled down and looks even more dangerous than it was back in 2008. Let's check up and see how things are going.
There is some good news. Since the fall of 2008, a large number of bad brokers have gone out of business. Although regulations make a lot of things harder for traders who trade with US brokers, other regulations make brokers operating under NFA and CFTC rules control much safer to trade with. Then there's the bad News:
A trader at UBS evidently made some unauthorized transactions, losing well over $2 billion. Oops.
I knew the US government supported alternatively energy projects. A few tax incentives applied in the right places can make a big difference. I didn't know that they also provided backing for loans made that they also provided backing for loans made to such companies. A big solar power stratup called Solyndra filed for bankruptcy on August 31st, minus about a billion dollars. US tax payers are on the hook for over $500 million of that. Oops. and this is just the stuff we get to hear about on the front pages and in lead stories on the news channels. A few million here and there doesn't make much of a splash in the news anymore, but it adds up. How many dollars and euros will need to be printed up to cover these sorts of things? The huge increases in the US deficit and the inevitable downgrading of US debt (first by China, then by standard and Poor) has shaken world markets. Other government bonds have been or will likely be downgraded soon. The number of financial issues in Eurozone countries continues to increase. There are still plenty of brokers out there that either will deliberately rip you off if you make any profits or will just go backrupt, potentially cutting off access to your forex funds for years or forever. The US Social Security system keeps delaying its day of reckoning as the world's largest Ponzi Scheme. I'm personally amazed that the people in Washington have managed to keep juggling the books on it for this long. I haven't checked on other countries, but I'm pretty sure the US isn't the only one with some form of social insurance for a growing number of senior citizens that's being paid for by a smaller and smaller proportion of workers.
On a more frightening note, I'm positive I'm not the only one to notice that there is one essential items we can't live without that's been steadily increasing in price. that's food. Foodflation at these ratea alone is a particular worrisome sign of potential problems ahead. The reasons vary from country to country, but the overall prices of food now are significantly higher that last year in most countries.
Still, there are many ways to protect your assets. I'd like to re-emphasize not leaving all your money with your brokers or even in your bank. I'm firmly in favor of good risk management, but let me restate a point from the original Wealth Protection article in more concrete terms.
If you NEVER have more that 4% of your account at risk on all open trades, you can cut your "bad brokerage" risk in half by pulling out 50% of your forex trading money now and then risking no more that 8% of the remaining balance on open trades. Your trade size stays the same, your profits (and losses) stay the same. You're just cautiously using twice the margin that you would if all of your money was in the brokerage account while keeping half your money somewhere else. Naturally, only a conservative trader can do this, since people who regularly risk large percentages of their accounts would be begging for quick margin calls by increasing their risk. Keep the money you pull out in a safe place. I'd recommend a safe bank account, a safe deposit box, and/or a safe in your home. More on those options later.
If your account continues to grow, get accounts at several different brokerages. Then one failing broker doesn't wipe you out. If opening the same trades at more that one broker is tiresome, there is trade copying software out there that you can check out.
And now, how to cover more than your forex accounts.
Number one, you must have some cash on hand. By on-hand, I mean inside your home (although having money for a couple tanks of gas and meals buried in the trunk of your car also isn't the world's worst idea). A large scale power failure can leave your credit and ATM cards useless. If your bank goes under, I'm sure the government will probably pay out the deposits, but will only do so at the usual efficient pace we've all come to expect from large bureaucracies.
Splitting your assets between cash and precious metals is something I highly recommended. The percentage of your assets in cash vs. precious metals is a personal decision based on your worries about the risk of massive deflation (Great Depression, Mark II) vs Hyperinflation (Today's special - only $500 for a cup of coffee with any meal costing over $10,000!). In 2008, if you had all your money stuffed in your mattress, inflation probably ate some of the value, depending on what currency(ies) you used for stuffing. Hint: It never hurts to think about having at least a little of your cash in foreign currencies. This is why you need to consider covering yourself both ways. Let's assume you read my original Wealth Protection article in September 2008 and felt inspired to buy gold and silver, and then needed cash earlier this month and sold the metal. Let's see what would have happened:
The highest price of gold in September 2008 was about $924.60/ounce and the highest price for silver was about 13.82/ounce. Note that I'm pulling these prices off monthly candles at a forex broker that carries gold and silver, so the physical market may be off slightly from these numbers. Over the last 30 days, the lowest price for gold as $1532.90/ounce and the lowest price for silver was $26.09/ounce. Both of these lows are due to recent pullbacks in the bull trend, prices were significantly higher a short time ago (almost $50 an ounce for silver and over $1900 an ounce for gold). This means that if you had bought $100 worth of gold and $100 worth of silver at the absolute highest price during September 2008, and sold them for the absolute lowest price during the past months, thus taking the worst possible price on both ends of the trade, you would have gotten about $355 back for your $200 purchase of gold and silver, leaving you a net profit of about $155. Not bad for letting some metal sit around and collect dust.
Currently, I'm watching the pullback and am planning my next purchase soon. BTW - by purhase, I mean physical metals I can hold in my hand. I buy gold and silver for safety, and I don't consider paper contracts to be completely safe. Personally, I usually buy my silver in the USA via eBay and get my gold when I'm in China from different banks. You can read about my first experience trying to buy Chinese gold here.
Let's say you decide to follow my advice. since you probably don't have a great pyramid with concealed treasure rooms and traps that would keep the most determined tomb raider out of your vaults available to stash your treasure in, you need a safe place to keep cash and metals.
The good news is that the US FDIC increased the amount of insurance on bank deposits in the USA (as a method of discouraging bank runs during the crisis of 2008). The bad news is that if (when?) we see another massive banking crisis, you could be spending a very long time waiting for them to mail you a check to replace the money in the bank you thought was safe. The worse news is that many of my readers are in places with banks that inspire even less confidence.
A safe deposit box is less convenient than a bank account. You don't get an ATM card and can't write checks against it. You can't access it a 3 in the morning. On the other hand, you can keep everything you like inside, no government agency knows what you have there or how valuable the contents are, and chances of theft are very small (unless the government itself goes bad). A good bank will set things up so that it takes a fingerprint to even be allowed to take your key into the vault. If you misplace the key (or your fingerprint), you have to provide all sorts of ID, know a PIN code, etc. If your country is mostly stable, it's probably a safe place to keep at least some of your cash and precious metals, but you need to be ready to empty that box the moment things start showing any significant signs of instability. There are only two worries with safe deposit boxes under normal conditions. First, they can be opened by a court order. Second, if someone does somehow managed to break into the bank vault and steal what's in yours, the contents of safe deposit boxes are generally not considered insurable.
In some countries, there are private firms offering secure storage for gold and other valuables. Some of these provide insurance. I haven't investigated these and don't know how stable or secure any of the companies behind them are.
The there's my favourite method. I like keeping things that I value within easy reach. Previously, I recommended not one, but 2 in-home safes. The smaller one would be easy to find, not too hard to open, and should contain only a modest amount of your stashed valuables. I saw someone had copied my article to another forum and this advice was being made fun of as a foolish idea since any real criminal would know that the firt one wasn't the main amount. This could happen, but only in two ways. First, if you tell everyone "Hey, I've got PILES of cash and precious metals in my home" and a criminal finds a safe containing $28.17 and 1 ounce of silver, then your attempt to misdirect the burglar will likely fail and now you've got an annoyed burglar in your house. On the other hand, if you don;t tell everyone that you prefer to keep valuables in your house (and don't write articles about it - there's a reason I don't tell you my name and home address), then having a small cash box with a few hundred dollars and a few other valuable items will probably be more than enough to make a simple thief declare victory and leave.
Let's take a quick moment to examine type of burglars. There are several types. The most common are just there to get in and out as fast as possible. Leaving something they want that you can live without where one of these can find it improves the chances that this sort will decide to leave quickly and not do a lot of damage. A worse type is the kind who has already determined your schedule and knows that he's got at least several hours to do a detailed search of your home. The absolute worst is the one (or group) who decides to visit when you are home so you can be forced to give a guided tour of where everythings is.
Most of your cash and metal should be inside a well concealed safe that's bolted in place from the inside. If you are really worried about burglars paying you a visit and demanding to know where the safe is or they kill you, it may be worth having 2 such safes in different areas of the house. Two solid and secured safes is unusual, so most burglars won't even consider the possibility that there could be a second one. Naturally, don't brag to friends and family about this. all it takes is one person mentioning it where the wrong person can hear and all of your efforts at concealment are wasted.
If you haven't gotten a safe yet, or want to disburse your money to make it harder for burglars to find, you need to think like a burglar so you can make life harder for them.
Bad idea #1. Despite my references to Mattress Bank (protecting your assets since 1929) as a good place to hide your money, please don't literaaly put your in your mattress. In, under, and around the bed is the first place any competent burglar will look. Many people seem to want to hide money in the master bedroom, and most thieves know this. If you want a place to have that lower value cash box, bolt it into the sock drawer of your dresser. That plays into the burglars's expectations.
Bad Ides #2. Hiding things in the toilet tank looks really clever in the movies, probably even on the disk that was still in the last DVD player your burglar stole from someone else. It's also something virtually every teenage drug user has already done. Guess what? A lot of burglar are looking for money to support their drug habits and they are happy to look for drugs too. There's no sense in hiding anything somewhere where your burglar alreaddy knows to look. If you want to leave some bait to encourage your neighbourhood addict/burglar to quit his habbit, tape a plastic bag filled with half a dozen generic laxative pills under the lid of the tank.
Bad Idea #3. don't repeat a good idea too many times. If you have a lot books, hiding some money in one or two would be resonable. Hiding $100 bill on page 100 of each volume of a set of encyclopedias is a bad idea. If your burglar finds one, he'll probably find them all You're supposed to be making burglars waste their limited search time, not giving them a roadmap to your cash.
Bad Idea $4. Don't hide it so well that you can't get to it yourself. Having to slither the length of an attic or under-house crawl space and then removing 3 thightly bolted steel panels to even access a safe might be taking things a little too far. Spreading $10,000 around you home as one dollar bills, each in a different location will make sure that a thief doesn't find it all. It will also make it very hard for you to remember where all of its is yourself.
Good Idea #1: If you have enough money and metal, buying a good safe is an investment in your financial security. If you have $1000 to protect, then spending 4 or 5 hundred dollars on a safe is silly. On the other hand, if you have tens of thousands, to not spend several hundred or even a thousand is foolish. A decent small fire resistant safe can be had for well under $100.
Good Idea #2. If the service is available in your area, a monitered alarm system can save you from burglary as well as alerting the fire department. Some systems even can tie in through a dedicated cellular phone, thus rendering the simple trick of cutting the phone lines ineffective. I had a not too skillful burglar manage to force the back door in my home. He made it as far as the kitchen before the alarm company asked him to identify himself. He ran out the front door and got nothing.
Don't trust those ads that offer cheap alarm service and installation. They usually only cover one door and a few windows. They then charge a small fortune to install each additional door or window sensor. In some cases, they "own" the hardware, whick makes changing monitoring companies very difficult later. If you can read an instruction manual and use a screwdriver, you can buy everything you need online, install it yourself, and then take bids for monitoring services.
Good Idea #3. check those doors and windows. Upgrade them (safer and more energy efficient) and upgrade the locks. Most burglars want an easy target. If the choice is two houses and one is very easy to get in and out of and one isn't, which one do you think will get robbed? Go ahead and get some motion activated lights too. They don't just scare off burglars, but also make life more convenient if you come home after dark. Even if you live in an apartment, having a motion activated lamp that comes on when anyone steps through the front door can serve both purposes. A couple of lamps on timers can also make it looks like someone is home when you are away.
Lastly, getting back to that mention of foodflation, think about it long and hard. If you can stockpile even a little extra food when it's on sale, this can even save you money in the long run. Even if food prices level out, hurricanes and other natural disasters can easily disrupt supplies for days or weeks. A really bad disaster can have effects that linger longer than that. A bar of gold and a couple of hundred bills won't buy you a bottle o water and a sandwich if there aren't any available for sale.
It's a dangerous world out there. Protect your wealth, yourself, and your family.
On a more frightening note, I'm positive I'm not the only one to notice that there is one essential items we can't live without that's been steadily increasing in price. that's food. Foodflation at these ratea alone is a particular worrisome sign of potential problems ahead. The reasons vary from country to country, but the overall prices of food now are significantly higher that last year in most countries.
Still, there are many ways to protect your assets. I'd like to re-emphasize not leaving all your money with your brokers or even in your bank. I'm firmly in favor of good risk management, but let me restate a point from the original Wealth Protection article in more concrete terms.
If you NEVER have more that 4% of your account at risk on all open trades, you can cut your "bad brokerage" risk in half by pulling out 50% of your forex trading money now and then risking no more that 8% of the remaining balance on open trades. Your trade size stays the same, your profits (and losses) stay the same. You're just cautiously using twice the margin that you would if all of your money was in the brokerage account while keeping half your money somewhere else. Naturally, only a conservative trader can do this, since people who regularly risk large percentages of their accounts would be begging for quick margin calls by increasing their risk. Keep the money you pull out in a safe place. I'd recommend a safe bank account, a safe deposit box, and/or a safe in your home. More on those options later.
If your account continues to grow, get accounts at several different brokerages. Then one failing broker doesn't wipe you out. If opening the same trades at more that one broker is tiresome, there is trade copying software out there that you can check out.
And now, how to cover more than your forex accounts.
Number one, you must have some cash on hand. By on-hand, I mean inside your home (although having money for a couple tanks of gas and meals buried in the trunk of your car also isn't the world's worst idea). A large scale power failure can leave your credit and ATM cards useless. If your bank goes under, I'm sure the government will probably pay out the deposits, but will only do so at the usual efficient pace we've all come to expect from large bureaucracies.
Splitting your assets between cash and precious metals is something I highly recommended. The percentage of your assets in cash vs. precious metals is a personal decision based on your worries about the risk of massive deflation (Great Depression, Mark II) vs Hyperinflation (Today's special - only $500 for a cup of coffee with any meal costing over $10,000!). In 2008, if you had all your money stuffed in your mattress, inflation probably ate some of the value, depending on what currency(ies) you used for stuffing. Hint: It never hurts to think about having at least a little of your cash in foreign currencies. This is why you need to consider covering yourself both ways. Let's assume you read my original Wealth Protection article in September 2008 and felt inspired to buy gold and silver, and then needed cash earlier this month and sold the metal. Let's see what would have happened:
The highest price of gold in September 2008 was about $924.60/ounce and the highest price for silver was about 13.82/ounce. Note that I'm pulling these prices off monthly candles at a forex broker that carries gold and silver, so the physical market may be off slightly from these numbers. Over the last 30 days, the lowest price for gold as $1532.90/ounce and the lowest price for silver was $26.09/ounce. Both of these lows are due to recent pullbacks in the bull trend, prices were significantly higher a short time ago (almost $50 an ounce for silver and over $1900 an ounce for gold). This means that if you had bought $100 worth of gold and $100 worth of silver at the absolute highest price during September 2008, and sold them for the absolute lowest price during the past months, thus taking the worst possible price on both ends of the trade, you would have gotten about $355 back for your $200 purchase of gold and silver, leaving you a net profit of about $155. Not bad for letting some metal sit around and collect dust.
Currently, I'm watching the pullback and am planning my next purchase soon. BTW - by purhase, I mean physical metals I can hold in my hand. I buy gold and silver for safety, and I don't consider paper contracts to be completely safe. Personally, I usually buy my silver in the USA via eBay and get my gold when I'm in China from different banks. You can read about my first experience trying to buy Chinese gold here.
Let's say you decide to follow my advice. since you probably don't have a great pyramid with concealed treasure rooms and traps that would keep the most determined tomb raider out of your vaults available to stash your treasure in, you need a safe place to keep cash and metals.
The good news is that the US FDIC increased the amount of insurance on bank deposits in the USA (as a method of discouraging bank runs during the crisis of 2008). The bad news is that if (when?) we see another massive banking crisis, you could be spending a very long time waiting for them to mail you a check to replace the money in the bank you thought was safe. The worse news is that many of my readers are in places with banks that inspire even less confidence.
A safe deposit box is less convenient than a bank account. You don't get an ATM card and can't write checks against it. You can't access it a 3 in the morning. On the other hand, you can keep everything you like inside, no government agency knows what you have there or how valuable the contents are, and chances of theft are very small (unless the government itself goes bad). A good bank will set things up so that it takes a fingerprint to even be allowed to take your key into the vault. If you misplace the key (or your fingerprint), you have to provide all sorts of ID, know a PIN code, etc. If your country is mostly stable, it's probably a safe place to keep at least some of your cash and precious metals, but you need to be ready to empty that box the moment things start showing any significant signs of instability. There are only two worries with safe deposit boxes under normal conditions. First, they can be opened by a court order. Second, if someone does somehow managed to break into the bank vault and steal what's in yours, the contents of safe deposit boxes are generally not considered insurable.
In some countries, there are private firms offering secure storage for gold and other valuables. Some of these provide insurance. I haven't investigated these and don't know how stable or secure any of the companies behind them are.
The there's my favourite method. I like keeping things that I value within easy reach. Previously, I recommended not one, but 2 in-home safes. The smaller one would be easy to find, not too hard to open, and should contain only a modest amount of your stashed valuables. I saw someone had copied my article to another forum and this advice was being made fun of as a foolish idea since any real criminal would know that the firt one wasn't the main amount. This could happen, but only in two ways. First, if you tell everyone "Hey, I've got PILES of cash and precious metals in my home" and a criminal finds a safe containing $28.17 and 1 ounce of silver, then your attempt to misdirect the burglar will likely fail and now you've got an annoyed burglar in your house. On the other hand, if you don;t tell everyone that you prefer to keep valuables in your house (and don't write articles about it - there's a reason I don't tell you my name and home address), then having a small cash box with a few hundred dollars and a few other valuable items will probably be more than enough to make a simple thief declare victory and leave.
Let's take a quick moment to examine type of burglars. There are several types. The most common are just there to get in and out as fast as possible. Leaving something they want that you can live without where one of these can find it improves the chances that this sort will decide to leave quickly and not do a lot of damage. A worse type is the kind who has already determined your schedule and knows that he's got at least several hours to do a detailed search of your home. The absolute worst is the one (or group) who decides to visit when you are home so you can be forced to give a guided tour of where everythings is.
Most of your cash and metal should be inside a well concealed safe that's bolted in place from the inside. If you are really worried about burglars paying you a visit and demanding to know where the safe is or they kill you, it may be worth having 2 such safes in different areas of the house. Two solid and secured safes is unusual, so most burglars won't even consider the possibility that there could be a second one. Naturally, don't brag to friends and family about this. all it takes is one person mentioning it where the wrong person can hear and all of your efforts at concealment are wasted.
If you haven't gotten a safe yet, or want to disburse your money to make it harder for burglars to find, you need to think like a burglar so you can make life harder for them.
Bad idea #1. Despite my references to Mattress Bank (protecting your assets since 1929) as a good place to hide your money, please don't literaaly put your in your mattress. In, under, and around the bed is the first place any competent burglar will look. Many people seem to want to hide money in the master bedroom, and most thieves know this. If you want a place to have that lower value cash box, bolt it into the sock drawer of your dresser. That plays into the burglars's expectations.
Bad Ides #2. Hiding things in the toilet tank looks really clever in the movies, probably even on the disk that was still in the last DVD player your burglar stole from someone else. It's also something virtually every teenage drug user has already done. Guess what? A lot of burglar are looking for money to support their drug habits and they are happy to look for drugs too. There's no sense in hiding anything somewhere where your burglar alreaddy knows to look. If you want to leave some bait to encourage your neighbourhood addict/burglar to quit his habbit, tape a plastic bag filled with half a dozen generic laxative pills under the lid of the tank.
Bad Idea #3. don't repeat a good idea too many times. If you have a lot books, hiding some money in one or two would be resonable. Hiding $100 bill on page 100 of each volume of a set of encyclopedias is a bad idea. If your burglar finds one, he'll probably find them all You're supposed to be making burglars waste their limited search time, not giving them a roadmap to your cash.
Bad Idea $4. Don't hide it so well that you can't get to it yourself. Having to slither the length of an attic or under-house crawl space and then removing 3 thightly bolted steel panels to even access a safe might be taking things a little too far. Spreading $10,000 around you home as one dollar bills, each in a different location will make sure that a thief doesn't find it all. It will also make it very hard for you to remember where all of its is yourself.
Good Idea #1: If you have enough money and metal, buying a good safe is an investment in your financial security. If you have $1000 to protect, then spending 4 or 5 hundred dollars on a safe is silly. On the other hand, if you have tens of thousands, to not spend several hundred or even a thousand is foolish. A decent small fire resistant safe can be had for well under $100.
Good Idea #2. If the service is available in your area, a monitered alarm system can save you from burglary as well as alerting the fire department. Some systems even can tie in through a dedicated cellular phone, thus rendering the simple trick of cutting the phone lines ineffective. I had a not too skillful burglar manage to force the back door in my home. He made it as far as the kitchen before the alarm company asked him to identify himself. He ran out the front door and got nothing.
Don't trust those ads that offer cheap alarm service and installation. They usually only cover one door and a few windows. They then charge a small fortune to install each additional door or window sensor. In some cases, they "own" the hardware, whick makes changing monitoring companies very difficult later. If you can read an instruction manual and use a screwdriver, you can buy everything you need online, install it yourself, and then take bids for monitoring services.
Good Idea #3. check those doors and windows. Upgrade them (safer and more energy efficient) and upgrade the locks. Most burglars want an easy target. If the choice is two houses and one is very easy to get in and out of and one isn't, which one do you think will get robbed? Go ahead and get some motion activated lights too. They don't just scare off burglars, but also make life more convenient if you come home after dark. Even if you live in an apartment, having a motion activated lamp that comes on when anyone steps through the front door can serve both purposes. A couple of lamps on timers can also make it looks like someone is home when you are away.
Lastly, getting back to that mention of foodflation, think about it long and hard. If you can stockpile even a little extra food when it's on sale, this can even save you money in the long run. Even if food prices level out, hurricanes and other natural disasters can easily disrupt supplies for days or weeks. A really bad disaster can have effects that linger longer than that. A bar of gold and a couple of hundred bills won't buy you a bottle o water and a sandwich if there aren't any available for sale.
It's a dangerous world out there. Protect your wealth, yourself, and your family.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Forex Articles
About the Author:
Joe Chalhoub
Lebanon, Beirut
1. How to Build a Good Forex Strategy
Each forex trader must have his own strategy, we can’t rely all the time on others strategies and forex signal, other FX traders are not better then us; we can develop more profitable techniques. In this article I will give you some tips to follow while developing your currency trading strategy.
First of all be simple as you can; Forex trading is not simple and it needs good concentration that’s true, but the good news is you can make profit by following simple techniques and stick to it. Don’t use complicated economic indicators; indicators describe the market and do not predict it.
Second, develop a strategy which do not rely on news release, you can do that by closing a trade before a news release or open it after a news release, and by this way you will not be stopped out because a report came worse than your expectation.
Combining the second and third rule we will have the following scenario: I see a currency in a downtrend (or uptrend) and I am sure of the trend, but the RSI is under 30, and after a while a report will be released, so what I do is wait for the report to be released.
At release time we will either see the currency going down very quickly and we will miss the chance to enter into a very profitable trade and it is not a problem as long as we don’t loose pips, OR the currency will go up, in that case the RSI is no more oversold, so we identify a good entry point to enter a short trade. Forex is not so bad and it always gives us new chances and always tells us to enter or exit but we must read well the signs and forex signal.
Fourth, the most important thing in foreign exchange trading is the entry point; good entry point leads us to profit, bad entry point leads us to loose. You probably hear a lot of traders telling you do not trade against the trend, and that’s right but it is not enough, you must know where to enter a trend , timing is the most important, so where to enter, I will tell you where I enter. For example, let’s assume that EUR/USD major trend is down and I want to enter a short trade. We know very well that currencies move in waves
So most traders see in wave [A_B} a good opportunity to sell but it is too risky for me and it has a good probability to stop me out, if I enter at point [B] I will be stopped out, but If I short at point [C] I will be riding the trend from the beginning and make very good pips.
At point [C] the currency is no more oversold and probably at point [B] a report has been released and caused a retracement to [C], so at [C] I will enter the corrective wave. With this technique, I will have a 95% chance to hit my target and the spread will be very tight. You see, forex gives you many chances, you must change your way of thinking a little bit and see trading from a different point of view and have our own forex signal.
2. How to Trade The News
News Trading or (Trade the news technique) is a term which we always hear, in this article I will describe how I see Forex News Trading and how I trade the news; I tried forex news trading for many years and discovered great things; how to use economic reports and forex news along with technical analysis.
In this article I will describe the most accurate and profitable FX techniques that each trader must use in his trades. First of all, we must use Technical and Fundamental analysis in our trades, we can’t rely on one without the other, we must use them both; Technical analysis analyses the history of the currency and predict the future price; each trader has a different forex strategy which he uses in analyzing the market, me too I have my own strategies and they are not hidden; you can check my forex forum and get whatever you want from it.
Let’s talk now about the fundamental analysis, I tried most of fundamental and news trading techniques but I didn’t find them worthy, it is real that releasing news can affect a certain currency, but how it affects the currency and when it deviates that currency, some economic reports make the currency jump 100 pips during the first split second of the time release – you must pay for this kind of service (getting the data in the second of the release)
In addition a report may affect a currency during the first 10 minutes or half hour but before it takes the right trend it can fluctuates up and down and may stop you out, many traders put entries above and below the price before 2 minutes of the release, and wait for the spike, but also it is not worthy method because it may happen that the news which deviate the currency doesn’t have enough power to hit the target or maybe the revision came opposite to the actual or the deviation between the actual and the forecast was not enough to enter a trade or maybe the report was released and the price was below a certain resistance which forbid the price to pass it, so you enter a LONG trade but you find that the price went up, then tests the resistance then turns back to the support level and stops you out.
I faced a lot of these problems and you will face it too if you don’t follow the right technique while trading the news. My technique is very simple and effective:
1 – Don’t trade all news trading reports, trade only those who create and define the direction of the trend (Interest rates, trade balance and NonFarm Payroll). Do not trade these news trading reports only because they are important it may happen that a report came better then expected but do not create a move. I enter a trade only if the actual data came much better or worse (good deviation) and the revised data came along with the actual data and there is no important conflicting report.
2 – The other normal news trading reports are also important; they are used to confirm or to close a trade especially when we are in the beginning of a specific trade; If you have just entered a trade and your current profit is between -20 and 20 pips and a specific report is released and that report affects the currency you are trading then we close it because this report has a good probability to stop you out. When you gain a good number of pips then you may not rely on normal economic reports and rely only on technical analysis and continue your trade until you hit your target.
Fundamental and news trading is a good technique but we must use it along with technical analysis, and we must take in consideration trading the important news reports, the deviation between actual and Consensus, the revised data, the conflicting news trading reports and the support and resistance levels.
3. How to Take Control in Forex Trading
Forex Trading is not that easy, all FX traders before they enter this business, they think that they will be rich very quickly and make $20 000 in one or two weeks, but when they begin trading currencies they discover it is not true, it is not easy to make money especially when we work with money. Very tricky business, many of us think that there is a conspiracy planned by “THE BIG GUYS”, they know what we think what we plan to do and they do the opposite to steel our money, many times we think to make the opposite of our decision (if I see the market is going up then I will sell). And we begin searching for someone to help us making at least 200 or 300 pips a month, probably many of us work with signals advisors who simply took our money and probably do not help us making decent profit. Many of us thought stop trading many of us quit FX trading but I think most of us will not quit easily because we see in it a golden opportunity to have our own business and make our fortune.
Foreign exchange is an opportunity to make a fortune and in same time it is an opportunity to loose our money, we can make a fortune if we knew how to handle Forex, if we don’t know how to control Forex it will destroy us, so we must be stronger than it, and if we don’t know how to control it with our own hands it will destroy us too. So how I can be stronger than this ferocious beast? It is simply by learning, observing, and practicing. The FX market will not go anywhere it will be trending and ranging for ever, so learn from experienced traders how they became that good, observe charts and look for common points look for the reason why the price change direction, and when you discover the reason which influence a currency you will have in your hand the first tool that gives you control. And each new thing you discover try it on a demo account, see if it is valid and develop it. In this Forex article I am helping you to find your way, this Forex Article does not give you the fish but it teaches you fishing. There is no conspiracy theory in this business, no big or small guys, we loose because we don’t know, and the first thing we must do to become good traders is to admit that we don’t know and we must always learn.
In this Forex Article I will give some clues and I will leave you learn, observe and practice.
First of all you must know that you must use fundamental and technical analysis in conjunction, both complete each others, so don’t rely on one and leave the other. Fundamental is one of the reasons which influence the market, so if you are in a long trade and suddenly the trading currency went down so go and see if a report was released and see what its forecast and what was the released data and compare this data to your chart and you will have your first tool to control your business.
Second, in my opinion all the technical indicators didn’t help me at all, I tried all the combinations nothing work, and indicators describe the status of the market but don’t give you information about the next direction. I read a Forex article about a guy who describes his Forex Trading strategy in a Forex article, I was completely lost, he uses a combination of 12 indicators EMA340, SEMA890, EMA2900 etc… and he inserted FIBONACCI in it. I was totally lost. Even if his strategy worth 95% success I will not use it because I can control the market by using simpler techniques. So we don’t need to seek indicators, only one indicator I use the Bollinger Band which is the perfect weapon in my battle against forex trading. So I want you to look at the Bollinger Band and see how it affects a currency, focus on it and read well this forex article and you will discover a lot of things, and you will have your second tool.
Third, suppose you are in a long trade and suddenly for no reason the Forex Trading price went down, there are no released reports it just turned down, this is weird. But weird things are those we don’t understand, but if you observe your chart and go back several hours or days and drop a break line from higher swing points you will see that the price turns down because it reached that break line, you see there is no mystery. So this break line will be your Resistance and if price breaks it, it will continue going up, but going where and till when? …. observe very carefully and you will learn as I did. And no need for midnight or afternoon candles, be simple as you can, that beast is not as ferocious as you think. So breakout is your third tool. [Rpchost.com provides traders with very important tools so they can trade with better accuracy; check the free forex signal section in the Rpchost.com and you can access free fundamental signal].
Fourth, what timeframe to use, it is up to you to choose the suitable timeframe, H1, H4, D1 … I don’t know, compare the charts and you will see the suitable timeframe. Timeframe is important and when you find it you will have your Fourth tool. [Traders can also have access to the Global economic calendar Section in the Rpchost.com and get access to a very good tool which helps traders identify and confirm their trades when an economic report is released].
And that’s it, I repeat observe your charts and focus and think in these clues in this forex article and the more you think the more you discover, read forex article, learn strategies and get foreign exchange books.
I do good profit from my forex trading strategy because I program it, I gave my system the data and leave it do his job. This eliminates the fear factor and gave me more time to go out and have fun.
I hope this Forex Article gave some tips and techniques which help traders in their Foreign Exchange trades [Traders can access Rpchost.com Forex Forum and view the latest predictions, strategies and forecasts].
Traders can access also the Rpchost.com Forex Trading Guide, this section explain the services provided by Rpchost.com. Good Luck
How to Place the Stop Loss Order? A Few Tips for Controlling Risk Effectively.
by John Robinson
john.robinson@forextraders.com
To trade forex you don’t need to have the genius mind of a wizard and be right in every prediction about the next movement of the market. It is perfectly OK to be wrong about your analysis many times during your trading career. The crucial skill of a successful forex trader is his ability to control and manage his downside effectively. Losses are a natural part of trading, but if you can ensure that they do not derail your overall trading vision, and can be eliminated by the profits of your trades that are successful, a promising and exciting forex career will be the outcome.
Clearly, the careful placement of the stop-loss order is crucial for risk management. To cut your losses short, you must make good use of this basic tool of money management. In the following section we’ll give a few ideas on the various ways of placing the stop-loss order, and you can use any combination of them in forex strategies.
1. Absolute stop Order: In this kind of order, the trader only concerns himself with the net unrealized profit or loss of his account. However confident he may be in his analytical skills, and the conditions that lead to his trade, the actual performance of the trade always has the final word about the fate of the position. Trader consensus demands that in every trade a maximum of 2.5 percent be risked in order to ensure that there will be ample future opportunities for correcting faulty decisions. Some traders go as far as 5 percent in a bid to be more aggressive about a trade scenario where they feel more confident, and five percent of the account value is probably the greatest extent a sensible trader will go with aggressive risk taking.
2. Technical Stop: In this case the stop-loss order is triggered when a technical formation is realized. In its most basic form, for example, the trader will close the position when the RSI rises to above 80 in a buy order. This kind of stop-loss order has the advantage of being more flexible in response to market events, but it clearly entails greater risk if things don’t go as planned.
3. News Stop: This is a rare method used by some traders with long-term positions, and sufficient confidence. In this case, the trader will be willing to ignore most of the volatility in preference for a major change in the fundamental picture. Only an anticipated news release confirming the elimination of the conditions that justified the trade in the first place will trigger a stop-loss order. However, such traders will also monitor the price action carefully, and will not hesitate to bail out if market conditions necessitate it.
For a technical stop, a forex API provided by a competent forex broker offers the greatest potential. For other types of stop-loss orders, trader action will be necessary. In all cases, it is probably best to use a flexible technical stop-order, for example, with an absolute, numerical order to safely insure against an adverse scenario. Through these and similar means, you will be able to limit your risk, and benefit from opportunities as they arise.
Forex Trading Strategies
1. Rpchost.com - Bollinger Bands Deviation Strategy Part I
I will show you in this strategy how to enter a trade at the perfect place. It gives you a good idea about good entry points.
First of all, open whatever chart you want then open the 4 hours time frame (H4). I will open also the Bollinger Bands(20) and Zig Zag indicator. Now, I will wait the Bollinger Band to deviate, in case the lower band deviate and formed with the preceding higher zig zag point an angle - the video clarifies more the strategy - I will wait the candle to be formed and enter into a Long trade.
Same thing for Short trades, I will wait the upper band to deviate and formed with the lower zig zag point an angle, I will wait the candle to be formed and enter into a short trade.
Joe Chalhoub
Bollinger Bands Deviation Strategy Part II
In this strategy I will add some advanced techniques to the last strategy "Bollinger Bands deviation strategy Part I".
So first of all I will open the EUR/USD chart, then I will open the 4 hours time frame and I will add the Bollinger Band (20) and Zig Zag indicators. As we saw in the previous video, the entry point was the closing candle which corresponds to the bollinger bands deviation angle, this angle was defined by dropping a line from the lower ZigZag for short trades and from the upper Zig Zag for long trades.
Today I will make this strategy more accurate, I will not wait the H4 to finish the candle to enter into a long trade, what I will do is the following: I will spot a deviation in the bollinger band of the H4 chart and open the corresponding 1 hour chart, as soon as I see a bollinger band deviation I will enter a trade when the 1 hour candle is finished, by this way I entered a trade much sooner then the H4 chart which gave me more pips in advance.
Concerning the exit point. The exit point is defined by the H4 chart, we simply wait the H4 breakLine to be intersected with the H4 bollinger Band to exit the trade which gives us a maximum number of pips. So we used the H4 chart and the H1 chart in combination to harvest the maximum profit.
Joe Chalhoub
So first of all I will open the EUR/USD chart, then I will open the 4 hours time frame and I will add the Bollinger Band (20) and Zig Zag indicators. As we saw in the previous video, the entry point was the closing candle which corresponds to the bollinger bands deviation angle, this angle was defined by dropping a line from the lower ZigZag for short trades and from the upper Zig Zag for long trades.
Today I will make this strategy more accurate, I will not wait the H4 to finish the candle to enter into a long trade, what I will do is the following: I will spot a deviation in the bollinger band of the H4 chart and open the corresponding 1 hour chart, as soon as I see a bollinger band deviation I will enter a trade when the 1 hour candle is finished, by this way I entered a trade much sooner then the H4 chart which gave me more pips in advance.
Concerning the exit point. The exit point is defined by the H4 chart, we simply wait the H4 breakLine to be intersected with the H4 bollinger Band to exit the trade which gives us a maximum number of pips. So we used the H4 chart and the H1 chart in combination to harvest the maximum profit.
Joe Chalhoub
2. Rpchost.com - 15 Ema Entry Point Strategy Part I
In this strategy I will show you how to enter a short trade at the highest levels and enter a long trade at the lowest levels.
You can open whatever currency and timeframe you want, I will open the 8 EMA and 15 EMA. For short trades I will wait the 8EMA to go under the 15 EMA then I will wait the price to develop a lower low, at this moment I will be ready for a short trade and I will wait the price to touch the 15 EMA line and at this point I will enter a short trade.
Same thing for long trades, I wait the 8 EMA to go above 15 EMA, I will spot a highest high and wait the price to touch the 15 EMA line and enter a long trade. I hope you traders profit from this simple startegy.
In this video you will understand the strategy, it is very easy and clear, for any question or comments feel free to send us your feedback.
Joe Chalhoub
15 Ema Entry Point Strategy Part II
This video is a continuation of the previous strategy "15 EMA Entry point Part I". I will add some filtering techniques to it. I will try to remove some noises and fake entries by using the bollinger band to confirm an entry point.
I will open the 4 hours time frame (H4) and the EUR/USD chart, I will add the 8 EMA and the 15 EMA, I will wait the 8 EMA to go above 15 EMA, I will open also the bollinger band indicator.
Now if the 8 EMA goes above 15 EMA, I will look to the bollinger band, if the higher band is UP and the lower band is also UP and the middle band is UP and it is under the 8 EMA and 15 EMA, so in that case I will wait the price to touch the 15 EMA to enter a BUY trade.
Same thing for short trades but surely in the opposite directions and thats it.
Joe Chalhoub
3. Rpchost.com - How to Predict a Reversal Trend Part I
How to Predict a Reversal Trend Part II
In this video I will show you where to exit the previous video trade "How to predict reversal trend Part I" , as we saw in the previous video we entered the trade when we met a divergence and when the price breaks a specific breakline. I will exit the trade if the RSI breaked the lower breakLine which we draw it previously (See the video) and in that case we will made at least 300 pips profit. So we exit the trade at the perfect place.
Joe Chalhoub
Friday, September 16, 2011
How I became a successful part time trader
Extracted from link: http://www.earnforex.com/articles/how-i-became-a-successful-part-time-trader
Introduction
I am Joe Chalhoub, a computer engineer, Forex trader and strategy builder. I began trading currencies 3 years ago. The first 3 months trading were complete failure, I remember I lost all my money and I was about to quit, but I couldn't, I felt if I quit now maybe I am missing the chance of having my own business. So I stopped trading and began observing, studying, analyzing and practicing.
Observing: I began observing the market, what causes movement, reaction, ranging and trading.
Analyzing: I began working with technical and fundamental analysis; how each analysis can predict and redirect the market and how I can use them both for my own benefit. I will talk about these analyses in the following paragraph.
Reading: I bought Forex Trading Books and read them, books explaining different strategies and tactics used by experienced traders.
Practicing: I created free accounts and began trading virtually and each technique I invent I tried it and monitored its performance and validity.
After one year of studies, analysis and practicing trading techniques and after many failure and frustration I reached my own strategy and it is working very well and each month my profit is positive.
Implementation
I reached my targets and I built a successful strategy, but that's not enough; to make profit I must not miss any opportunity and forex market is full of opportunities because it is the most active market in the world, for that reason I must sit all time and watch and detect opportunities all day long from Monday to Friday.
How to resolve this problem, I can't sit and observe the market hours and hours, I have my career and my family, so I thought I must program my strategy, let the Information Technology do the hard work for me, and nobody is discipline as a software, so I created an artificial intelligent software which collects data from the market and implement my strategy on this data and detect opportunities 24/24.
This program analyses fundamental and technical data and generates forex signals which are forwarded automatically to my broker platform where the signals are executed automatically and forwarded also to my website members. All this is done without my interfering, I just run the program, it analyses and makes its decisions (Buying, Selling or stay aside).
How to succeed in Forex Trading
Five over hundred traders succeed in this business, what differentiate those five successful from the 95 others is one thing, it is the HARD WORK. Forex trading is not an easy business, and who tells you that he can make you rich in one night is one of those 95. Only one thing can make you a successful trader, HARD WORK, and nothing else. Don't rely on other traders or advisors to help you, rely and have confidence on yourself.
Don't begin trading quickly, the forex market will not go anywhere, it will stay forever, give yourself 6 to 12 months of studies, analysis, readings, practice and build your own strategy before begin real trading, it will take a lot of time and dedication but at the end you will reach your target.
Strategy
I will not reveal my full strategy but I will reveal some techniques I use which help traders in their trades.
My strategy follows the following tips and techniques:
1 — Discipline: Put criteria for your trades, watch the market and only trade when criteria are met, if they are not met do not trade. My program is the most disciplined trader, it takes care of all of this, it monitors the market and only trade if only criteria are met, and the second advantage of this is the elimination of the fear factor, it enters a trade when it sees it is good to enter and fear nothing.
2 — Money management: It's the main key for good trading, I exit all trades and stop trading for a specific day if I lost -60 pips, in the other hand I put stop loss for my trades if I reached +25 pips profit, in that case profit will not get under +25 pips and it has open target, and all I have to do is go out and have fun.
3 — No trades for now: The most important thing in trading is sometime not to trade, I take this decision after looking to my charts and see that there is not enough volatility or there is no enough reports will be released for today and it is better to wait until market is more volatile. I advise traders not to trade during the first days of the month, personally I begin trading at the first Friday of the month when the "NonFarm payroll" report will be released.
4 — Analysis: I use fundamental and technical analysis while trading. Fundamental defines the trend of the market and the technical analysis is used after the definition of the trend. I trade the news by analyzing programmatically the released data for a specific report and generate signals which are executed immediately on the trading platform and forwarded simultaneously to my members.
Fundamental and technical analysis must be used together, if one is used without the other this will lead to failure.
5 — Technical indicators: In the forex market there is a lot of indicators which are used by many traders. I use ADX, Bollinger Bands to identify trends and volatility; RSI to identify an over bought or sold and Moving Average to identify a signal. And the most important technique is FIBONACCI, I advise traders to implement this technique and use it to confirm trades.
Finally, I must say that Forex is not easy, and many times we feel that someone is doing a conspiracy on us to take our money, but the truth is nothing is impossible, and others successful traders are not more intelligent than us and they are not genius from other planet, the fact is the more you work the more you become closer to become good trader. Do not quit quickly because this business deserves hard work and dedication.
By Joe Chalhoub
Friday, September 9, 2011
EBOOKS PERCUMA
Nota: i. Klik Tajuk Ebook untuk download
ii. Untuk simpan ke folder komputer anda, klik kanan > 'Save as" >"SAVE"
ii. Untuk simpan ke folder komputer anda, klik kanan > 'Save as" >"SAVE"
A) Ebook Bahasa Inggeris:
5. Candlestick Secrets
6. BabyPips School of Pipsology:
i. Pre School
ii. Kindergarden School
iii. Elementary School
6. BabyPips School of Pipsology:
i. Pre School
ii. Kindergarden School
iii. Elementary School
B) Ebook Bahasa Melayu
1. Analisa Teknikal
2. Analisa Teknikal 2
3. Belajar Forex 1
4. Belajar Forex 2
5. Kamus Forex
1. Analisa Teknikal
2. Analisa Teknikal 2
3. Belajar Forex 1
4. Belajar Forex 2
5. Kamus Forex
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Nick Vujicic Seorang Stock Trader Tanpa Lengan & Kaki
Salam Hormat Untuk Semua Traders & Bakal Traders.
Jika hari ini 'malang' menimpa anda kerana dibuang kerja akibat kegawatan ekonomi...
jangan anda panik, jangan bersedih dan jangan putus asa. Jika anda kehilangan kerja
yang menjadi sumber pendapatan menyara hidup anda dan keluarga dan sukar pula
untuk mendapatkan kerja baru kerana faktor umur ....jangan anda gusar. Banyak
alternatif dan sumber untuk menjana pendapatan. Salah satunya adalah menjadikan
Dagangan Matawang Asing di talian (online forex trading) sebagai satu kerjaya
yang mudah dan selesa dilakukan hanya dari rumah.
Walau pun anda kehilangan kerja, ini tidak bermakna anda hilang segala-galanya.
Fizikal anda yang sempurna sifat dan yang paling utamanya adalah akal & fikiran
yang Tuhan anugerahkan serta keyakinan, kepercayaan dan keimanan yang kuat
dalam diri anda adalah sesuatu yang tak dapat dinilai dengan emas dan permata.
Tuhan anugerahkan itu semua untuk anda gunakan sebaik mungkin sebagai
'modal' besar yang diperlukan untuk menggerakkan dan menghidupkan anda di
dunia ini sementara kita pergi beralih ke dunia kekal bila sampai masanya.
Kisah yang dipaparkan berikutnya, mudah-mudahan akan menyuntik semangat
yang kuat pada diri kita agar kita dapat 'bangun' kembali dari ' jatuh' yang tidak
kita sangka dan mulakan langkah seterusnya, seperti kata pepatah Cina.............
'Seribu batu bermula dengan satu langkah'
Saksikan paparan berikut...selamat menonton.
Sheikh Forex.
Jika hari ini 'malang' menimpa anda kerana dibuang kerja akibat kegawatan ekonomi...
jangan anda panik, jangan bersedih dan jangan putus asa. Jika anda kehilangan kerja
yang menjadi sumber pendapatan menyara hidup anda dan keluarga dan sukar pula
untuk mendapatkan kerja baru kerana faktor umur ....jangan anda gusar. Banyak
alternatif dan sumber untuk menjana pendapatan. Salah satunya adalah menjadikan
Dagangan Matawang Asing di talian (online forex trading) sebagai satu kerjaya
yang mudah dan selesa dilakukan hanya dari rumah.
Walau pun anda kehilangan kerja, ini tidak bermakna anda hilang segala-galanya.
Fizikal anda yang sempurna sifat dan yang paling utamanya adalah akal & fikiran
yang Tuhan anugerahkan serta keyakinan, kepercayaan dan keimanan yang kuat
dalam diri anda adalah sesuatu yang tak dapat dinilai dengan emas dan permata.
Tuhan anugerahkan itu semua untuk anda gunakan sebaik mungkin sebagai
'modal' besar yang diperlukan untuk menggerakkan dan menghidupkan anda di
dunia ini sementara kita pergi beralih ke dunia kekal bila sampai masanya.
Kisah yang dipaparkan berikutnya, mudah-mudahan akan menyuntik semangat
yang kuat pada diri kita agar kita dapat 'bangun' kembali dari ' jatuh' yang tidak
kita sangka dan mulakan langkah seterusnya, seperti kata pepatah Cina.............
'Seribu batu bermula dengan satu langkah'
Saksikan paparan berikut...selamat menonton.
Sheikh Forex.
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